Germany’s Key Role Re Russia & Ukraine
“To jaw-jaw is better than to war-war,” said Winston Churchill in 1954, supporting the principle of nations negotiating. These wise words from a great leader should be kept in mind regarding Ukraine, where Russia has been aggressively supporting rebel forces.
On February 12, a Ukraine ceasefire was announced after all-night negotiation. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in partnership with President François Hollande of France, has been spearheading efforts to end fighting in Ukraine between government forces and Moscow-backed separatists. Simultaneously, she has been leading European Union (EU) efforts to maintain financial stability in the region, especially recently in Greece.
Churchill made his comment during the early years of the Cold War, after successful cooperation between the Western Allies and the Soviet Union to defeat Nazi Germany had collapsed. Escalating discord over aspects of occupation of occupied Germany evolved into the Cold War.
That historic conflict was rooted essentially in different conceptions of society and relations among nations. Soviet leaders “are not like … us,” wrote American diplomat George Kennan in his book “Realities of American Foreign Policy,” published in the same year Churchill made his famous statement in favor of negotiation.
Kennan, expert on Germany and Russia, was among the most perceptive of American analysts of international relations, an always ardent student and writer. The containment policy he defined guided United States policies toward the Soviet Union and other communist powers from the administrations of Harry Truman through George H.W. Bush.
He focused on prudent realist diplomacy, which assumes conflict among national interests is inevitable. He emphasized Soviet and U.S. leaders vary markedly in experiences and outlook. Particularly brutal total war informed Moscow’s worldview. The fundamentally unproductive Communist system - if restrained - would eventually collapse, and our relations with friendly nations were relatively more important.
Kennan headed the policy planning staff of the State Department during the Truman administration, when containment became formally established as the foundation of the U.S. approach to the Soviet Union. He became a target of conservatives, even as President Dwight Eisenhower confirmed containment as policy.
President John F. Kennedy deserves credit for bringing Kennan back into public service as ambassador to Yugoslavia. Positioned at the crossroads of East-West Cold War conflict, representing our national interests in a major breakaway East European state, Kennan acquitted himself commendably.
In 1979, Princeton University Press published one of Kennan’s most challenging books, “The Decline of Bismarck’s European Order.” After unifying Germany, Otto von Bismarck provided effective diplomatic leadership to continental Europe through managing complex alliances. His departure from office, and the mediocre leadership that followed, set the stage for World War I.
Today the European Union provides a unifying economic structure, while Germany has reemerged as principal leading nation on the continent. Chancellor Merkel has succeeded in securing greater financial discipline within the EU, especially regarding heavily indebted nations of southern Europe.
She also is adept at limiting strong domestic political pressures to abandon this leadership role, which includes underwriting the solvency of nations many Germans view as profligate. German nationalism today is subdued but still potentially potent. Her success in this balancing act, leading the diverse nations of the EU while reconciling often intense domestic political factions, is extremely impressive.
The EU and also NATO provide frameworks for German and other national leaders to coordinate counter-pressures to Russia in Ukraine and elsewhere. Within this structure, economic leverage remains key.
Clearly, Chancellor Merkel today is principal leader among Atlantic nations.
Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College. Contact him at acyr@carthage.edu